Week 1 NFL betting nuggets to know - 8 minutes read
Week 1 of the NFL season is finally upon us. The top betting trends point towards Carolina to cover as home underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams, Kyler Murray having a successful debut for Arizona and New England to continue its home dominance.
Here are betting nuggets for every Week 1 game:
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-5.5, 45.5), 1 ET
- Cleveland is 0-13-1 outright and 4-9-1 against the spread in its past 14 Week 1 games. However, it did cover its past two season openers, including a tie last year against Pittsburgh.
- Cleveland has covered the past four meetings against Tennessee.
- Cleveland is 2-7 ATS in its past nine games as a favorite, including five outright losses in its past eight games as a favorite.
- Tennessee is 0-6-1 ATS in its past seven games against AFC North opponents and 1-9-1 ATS in its past 11 such games.
Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 38.5) at Miami Dolphins, 1 ET
- Miami is 5-1 straight-up and 6-0 ATS in season openers in the past six seasons (longest active cover streak in season openers).
- Baltimore has covered each of the past eight meetings (7-1 SU in span).
- Baltimore is 8-11 SU in its past 19 games as a road favorite (7-12 ATS).
- Eight of Ryan Fitzpatrick's past nine starts have gone over the total.
- Fitzpatrick is 10-2 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2 since 2011.
- Road teams favored by a FG or more in September are 48-74-1 ATS in the past 10 years, including 9-22 ATS in the past three years.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 47.5), 1 ET
- Mike Zimmer is 52-29-2 ATS as a head coach, the best mark by any coach in the Super Bowl era (minimum 50 games). Minnesota is 29-12-1 ATS at home under Zimmer.
- Atlanta was 5-11 ATS last season, tied for the worst mark in the NFL (San Francisco).
- Atlanta is 5-13 ATS on the road in the past two seasons and 1-5 ATS in Week 1 on the road in the past 10 seasons.
- Minnesota has won and covered each of the past three meetings.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3, 41), 1 ET
- The underdog has won five of the past six meetings and nine of the past 11 outright.
- New York is 5-2 ATS in its past seven season openers, including winning by 31 points last year at Detroit as a 7-point underdog.
- Seven of Josh Allen's 11 starts last season went under the total.
- Each of the past three meetings between these teams finished at least 13 points over the total.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-10, 45), 1 ET
- Washington has lost five of its past six Week 1 games (1-5 ATS).
- Washington is 3-10 ATS and SU in its past 13 divisional games.
- Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its past six season openers and it has won seven of its past eight season openers outright.
- The over is just 2-11-1 in Philadelphia's past 14 season openers.
- Philadelphia has won and covered each of the past four meetings (Washington had won and covered each of the previous five meetings).
- Teams that made the playoffs but had a losing ATS record the season before are 4-13 ATS in Week 1 in the past 10 seasons.
- Week 1 favorites of at least six points are 21-29-1 ATS in the past 10 seasons, with playoff teams going 10-19-1 ATS in that span.
Los Angeles Rams (-2, 50) at Carolina Panthers, 1 ET
- Regarding Los Angeles, Super Bowl losers from the previous season are 3-16 ATS in Week 1 the following season.
- Cam Newton is 14-5 ATS as an underdog since 2015, and he is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog since 2017 (3-1 outright).
- Carolina is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 51.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 ET
- Kansas City has covered seven straight September games.
- Patrick Mahomes is 6-2-1 ATS in his career on the road, though he is 0-2-1 ATS in his past three such games.
- Seven of Kansas City's eight road games last season went over the total.
- Jacksonville was 2-8-2 ATS in its final 12 games last season.
- Nick Foles has covered seven straight games as an underdog, including six outright wins.
- Teams that missed the playoffs and had a losing ATS record are 30-15-1 ATS in Week 1 against playoff teams in the past 10 years.
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 44.5), 4:05 ET
- Indianapolis is 1-10 ATS in Week 1 over the past 11 seasons (2-9 SU).
- Los Angeles was 2-6 ATS at home last season (6-10 ATS since moving from San Diego to Los Angeles).
- Jacoby Brissett's past eight starts went under the total (all in 2017).
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 44), 4:05 ET
- Seattle went 10-5-2 ATS last season including playoffs (third-best in the NFL).
- Seattle has won 10 straight home openers; 7-2 ATS in nine home openers under Pete Carroll.
- Nine of the Seahawks' past 11 nonconference games went over the total.
- Cincinnati covered its final four games last season.
- Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS the last two seasons when getting at least seven points.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45.5), 4:25 ET
- New York is 1-7 outright and 1-6-1 ATS in Week 1 the past eight years (only win and cover came at Dallas in 2015).
- New York was 7-1 ATS on the road last season (led NFL).
- Eli Manning is 18-7-1 ATS in his past 26 games getting at least seven points, including the playoffs, including 6-1-1 ATS since 2015.
- Since 2015, Dallas is 7-2-1 ATS as a favorite of at least six points (won 13 straight games outright as a favorite of at least six points).
Detroit Lions (-2.5, 46.5) at Arizona Cardinals
- Quarterbacks making their first career starts are 9-1-1 ATS since 2013 (8-0-1 ATS as underdog).
- Arizona is 8-1 ATS in its past nine September games as a home underdog.
- Detroit's past eight season openers went over the total.
- Twelve of Arizona's 16 games last season finished with 46 or fewer points.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 51), 4:25 ET
- Jimmy Garoppolo was 0-3 ATS as starter last season (had been 6-0-1 ATS in first seven career starts).
- Jameis Winston is 8-3-1 ATS in his past 14 starts.
- Tampa Bay is 2-8-1 ATS this decade as a home favorite in September.
- San Francisco did not cover in Week 1 in either of the past two seasons after going 11-2-1 ATS in Week 1 in the previous 14 seasons.
- San Francisco went 5-11 ATS last season (tied for worst with Atlanta).
- San Francisco is 0-7 ATS and SU in its past seven games where the total was in the 50s.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 50), 8:20 ET
- Bill Belichick is 240-176-10 ATS as head coach (third-best by coach in Super Bowl era, min. 60 games).
- Tom Brady is 180-120-7 ATS in his career, including 94-57-5 ATS at home.
- New England is 39-16-2 ATS at home since 2013 (best record in NFL), including covering 13 of its past 16 home games.
- New England is 13-3 ATS in its past 16 games with a total in the 50s, and 19 of the past 25 New England games with a total in the 50s went under.
- Brady is 7-3-1 ATS against Ben Roethlisberger, including 3-0-1 ATS at home.
- Pittsburgh was 5-0 ATS as an underdog last season, including a cover vs. New England (4-1 SU).
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7, 52.5), Monday at 7:10 ET
- Deshaun Watson is 7-2 ATS as an underdog in his career (4-5 SU).
- Watson has only lost by eight or more points twice in 23 NFL starts.
- Houston is 4-10 ATS all-time on Monday Night Football.
- New Orleans didn't cover its past five games last season (including playoffs).
- New Orleans is 0-5 outright and ATS in its past five season openers (lost as 10-point favorites vs. Tampa Bay in Week 1 last season).
- Last year, New Orleans played 15 games with a total in the 50s, and 10 of those games went under the total.
Denver Broncos (-1, 42.5) at Oakland Raiders, Monday at 10:15 ET
- Denver is 1-5-1 ATS on MNF since 2014.
- Denver is 5-13 ATS in its past 18 road games.
- Denver is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 divisional games.
- Joe Flacco is 6-9 outright (5-10 ATS) in his past 15 starts as a road favorite.
- Seven of the last eight meetings went under the total.