Even When Accounting for ‘Shy Trump Voters,’ the President Needs His Numbers to Improve

Is there a shy Trump voter factor the way there used to be “shy Tory factor” in polls? Probably.

Let’s say the shy Trump voters are worth a five-point swing in favor of Trump compared to the most recent numbers in key states. In a matchup against Joe Biden, Trump would still lose Michigan, lose Pennsylvania, and lose Wisconsin, as well as losing the national popular vote by a slightly larger margin than in 2016. If Biden won those three states, and kept Hillary Clinton’s states, he’s at 278 electoral votes and Trump would be a one-term president.

If you’re wondering about the other likely swing states, with a five point swing, Trump would still win Ohio. The limited number of polls in Florida range from a tie to nine point lead for Biden, and North Carolina has an even wider range. Iowa would probably be close.

All of this is when the economy is rocking and rolling; there’s no guarantee that the economy will be doing as well in 15 months. To feel good about Trump’s odds in those states, you must assume his shy supporters are worth a swing of 8 to 10 percentage points from the current numbers.

The “shy Trump voter” effect probably varies from state to state. The point is, in most of the big battleground states, Trump doesn’t need to do slightly better than his current poll numbers. He needs to do way better than his current poll numbers, even when you give him a generous assessment of hidden support that isn’t showing up in opinion surveys but will in show up polling places.

To put Trump’s polling numbers in perspective, Ronald Reagan‘s approval rating in the middle of 1983 according to Gallup was 45%. In 1984, his approval rating was 55%. In other words, when the American people actually sat down and listened to the accomplishments that Reagan had made during the presidential campaign, his approval ratings jumped substantially. Most Americans are on vacation and are not paying attention to politics at this time. When they focus next year on Trump and his accomplishments, his approval rating will jump, and he will be reelected easily.

Such nonsense. People vote their pocketbook. With the economy booming like it is there is no way in hell he can lose. As much as they hate Donald Trump, they love their money more...so I would say the “shy” Trump voters amount to at least 20 percent of the democrats and 80 percent of the independents. LANDSLIDE. One could say how could a “realist” say that. Well, thinking it over, I may have exaggerated by 2 or 3 percent!

‘Is it conceivable that a majority of Americans would actually vote for Joe Biden over what we have now???’ as of this writing, Biden is 76 years of age; he will be 78 shortly after the 2020 election, assuming, of course, that he hasn’t expired, a possibility for a person of that age...Donald Trump will be 74 at election time; following a second term will be as old as Biden trying for his first term...the age numbers are against Joe; look for a coalition forming around Kamala Harris come convention time pushing her into the nomination...

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