5 Things We Learned From The First Ten Days Of The Tour de France

Traditionally, the first week of the Tour de France has been something of a procession: a gradual softening up process designed to put kilometers in the legs and give the sprinters something to do before the proper racing begins in the mountains. It seemed designed for TV viewers to tune in, fall asleep on the sofa and then wake up in time for the bunch sprint at the end.

Race organizers have been at pains to change that notion in recent years, including various cobbled stages and sharp, punchy climbs designed to split up the peloton and prevent the big teams from controlling the speed. This year, they might well have cracked it. Four of the first ten stages ended in a sprint - not in and of itself a bad thing - and the General Classification hopefuls have certainly been required to be on their toes throughout. The Tour, the old adage goes, cannot be won in the first week, but it certainly can be lost there. As the race stops for its first rest day, let’s deep dive what we have learned from the first phase of the 2019 Tour de France.

1 - Team Jumbo-Visma are the big winners early on

Everyone expected Team Ineos to loom large over this Tour de France, but the first week has been all about Team Jumbo-Visma. The Dutch-based outfit have been through a few names since their first entry in 1986, and a few ups and downs along the way as well - but they cannot have had many better weeks than the one that just passed.

They have scooped four stage wins, with the triple threat of Dylan Groenewegen, Wout van Aert and Mike Teunissen crossing the line first in sprint finishes, as well as taking the team time trial on Day 2. Groenewegen is already well-known as one of the big fish in the peloton - this was his fourth stage win in the Tour - but the real breakout star has been Wout van Aert. The Belgian has won the last three Cyclo-cross World Championships and was expected to make a splash in his first tour, but few could have foreseen that it would go so well. With four stages in the bag, this Tour is already a huge success for Jumbo-Visma, but, whisper it quietly, they might not yet really have got going: Steven Kruijswijk, their team leader, sits in fourth overall on the GC. 

2 - Team Ineos aren’t far behind them

In the preview to this year’s Tour, I wrote that the loss of Chris Froome could open the entire race up, exposing the previously unflappable Team Sky (now Ineos) to attack. The contention went that Geraint Thomas, so impressive in winning last year’s race, might struggle without his best mate, while the anointed successor, Egon Bernal, might not be quite ready. 

After a week, that all looks a little silly. In the two stages that have mattered, Thomas has looked as strong as anyone, with the possible exception of his teammate Bernal. On the first major mountain stage, Stage 6 into La Planche Des Belles-Filles, Thomas managed to accelerate away at the end, sticking serious seconds into Romain Bardet and Vincenzo Nibali at a point where, in order to stand a chance, they probably needed to be attacking him, given Thomas’ strength (and Bardet’s lack thereof) in the time trials still to come. Ineos might be a major player light, but they are still bossing this race.

3 - It’s been a great week to be Dutch

Dutch people, in case you’ve lived under a rock for the last half century or so, are a little bit obsessed with cycling. When the bike is your nation’s principle method of getting around, it’s inevitable that a few decent pro riders will be thrown up, but the Netherlands has historically lagged behind itself in the Grand Tours, especially in the Tour de France. Not anymore. Mike Teunissen’s stage win on the opening day made him the first Dutchman to wear the yellow jersey in thirty years, lifting a huge monkey off the collective back of the Netherlands. Dylan Groenwegen then doubled-down on what was already historic week by winning Stage 7.

In fairness, the Netherlands has regularly produced stage winners. With arguably their best rider, Tom Dumoulin, sitting this race out, it now falls on Steven Kruijswijk, currently fourth, to attempt to do what no Dutchman has done since Joop Zoetemelk in 1980: win the bloody thing. When the race gets into the major mountains and the roadsides begin to turn that familiar shade of orange, those legions of Dutch fans will have a little more hope than usual that their guy can make his mark. 

4 - French riders fail again, with one obvious exception

In my preview, I also spoke up the chances of French favorites Thibaut Pinot and Romain Bardet. Bigging up French riders in the Tour de France is the cycling equivalent of backing Arsenal in the Premier League or backing Pakistan in cricket: sure, you might get a win from time to time, but always expect the worst. Bardet has been a major letdown so far and now, 3’20 off the pace, he looks toast. Pinot has fared a little better, but found himself on the wrong side of a crosswind-enforced split on Stage 10 and lost more time to Geraint Thomas. 

Of course, it isn’t all going badly: France is currently in possession of themaillot jaune. Julian Alaphilippe has had two stints in yellow and now stands a minute and change ahead of the two Team Ineos riders who join him on the podium. Not since Thomas Voeckler’s fairytale ride in 2011, where he wore yellow for two weeks and defended it up until the final stage in the Alps, has France had such a great hope. Alaphilippe, on paper, is a dangerous rider: he has won the King of the Mountains jersey, so he can certainly climb, and has two week-long stage race victories under his belt. The big test may come in the time trial next Saturday. 

5 - The bookies can’t see past Geraint Thomas

There’s a very good reason why bookmakers continually make money: they don’t get many wrong. Egon Bernal began the race as a clear favorite, but the odds now clearly point towards a second successive win for Welshman Geraint Thomas. The major questions ahead of theGrand Departsurrounded his health, the threat that his own team might opt to favor Bernal and the ability of Team Ineos to strangle rival attacks: so far, Thomas has looked the strongest man out there, including his own teammate, and Ineos haven’t been sufficiently tested by the other teams. 

With a time trial due this week, Thomas might be able to wear yellow for the first time, and once the famous jersey is on his back, good luck to anyone trying to take it off him. 

Source: Forbes.com

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