Pirates are MLB's most valuable World Series long shot

LAS VEGAS — The MLB All-Star break is a great time to take stock of how teams did in the first half of the season (though technically most teams hit the halfway point nearly two weeks ago) and see if there’s any betting value left in the futures.

Now, we don’t have a great overlay like we found last year at this time with the A’s at 60/1 to win the AL West. They still ended up losing the division to the Astros, but they caught them on Aug. 18 and I was able to sell my $100 ticket on PropSwap for $2,500 to lock in a profit. Even for those who weren’t able to do something similar, anyone following my advice and backing the A’s in individual games after the All-Star break did quite well.

Let’s see what we can find by going division by division (odds from New Jersey books are as of 1 p.m. on Tuesday):

My 10/1 ticket on the Rays to win the division was looking great early, but they’re now 6¹/₂ games behind the Yankees and I’m not confident enough to reload on them (note: they’re 12/1 at DraftKings and as low as 7/1 at William Hill). The better team to back now, in my opinion, is the Red Sox. They’re nine games back of the Yankees, despite being knocked around by them in London, and have the ability to catch them (as long as the Yankees come back to earth, say, around 60 percent). Let the bettor beware: I got 20/1 in Nevada on Tuesday, but the New Jersey odds are lower with the Red Sox only as high as 16/1 at DraftKings.

My other preseason value bet on the Twins at 3/1 to win the AL Central doesn’t look as good as it did a few weeks ago, as the Indians have cut the Twins’ 11-game lead down to 5¹/₂. If you also bet the Twins to win the division before the season, I wouldn’t blame you if you now take the Indians (high of +650 at DraftKings) to lock in a profit; however, I’m letting it ride.

Well, the A’s are around 20/1 at the All-Star break again and I’m going to jump on the bandwagon with them again (high of 22/1 at PointsBet). They trail by 7¹/₂ games, but have been playing their best moneyball lately as they went 14-5 heading into the break, including a 2-1 series win over the Twins and a 2-2 split versus the Rays while dominating the teams they’re supposed to beat (10-2 vs. Orioles, Cardinals, Angels and Mariners). If the Astros slip at all, the A’s can catch them. And just like last year, I believe there’s still value on the A’s in daily action as they’re far from a public team.

I really like this Braves team, but they’ve opened up a six-game lead on the Nationals and Phillies, and the value is long gone on them at -400 (William Hill) to win the division. However, if you believe like I do that they’re going to hold on and likely be the No. 2 seed in the NL, their World Series price is worth a look (however, beware that while I got 14/1 on Tuesday in Nevada, the best Jersey price was 10/1 at William Hill as of Thursday afternoon).

This is as wide-open as it gets with only 4¹/₂ games separating the five teams — and my value pick is the Pirates. They’re only 2¹/₂ games back of the Cubs, but they’re 15/1 at William Hill. Like the A’s, they come into the break playing their best at 14-7 in their last 21 games, and while they started that run going 6-2 against also-rans such as the Marlins, Tigers and Padres, they also went 2-1 against the Astros, 3-1 against the Cubs and split 3-3 in home-and-home series versus the Brewers. If you’re really looking for a long shot, the Pirates to win the World Series is 100/1 at DraftKings.

The Dodgers, despite losing their last three games before the All-Star break to the Padres, still have the best record in MLB at 60-32 (.652) and lead the Diamondbacks by 13¹/₂ games. They’re so far ahead that they’re 1/100 (bet $100 to profit $1) at PointsBet and DraftKings while some Vegas books aren’t even offering NL West futures. The Dodgers are between +280 (FanDuel) and +350 (William Hill) to win the World Series, but again I’d hold onto my money until October.

Best of luck with the rest of your summer baseball action.

Source: Nypost.com

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