Fantasy Value Abounds from Royals 2018 Draft

The Kansas City Royals may have had one of the best drafts in recent memory as we look back at their 2018 haul. Now, the club was set up well for success when it had four picks in the first 40 selections of the draft thanks to the compensation picks for losing Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas, but that doesn’t always guarantee success. We’ve seen a lot of teams in recent years whiff with multiple early picks when overthinking things and perhaps not having a great plan mapped out ahead of time.

The Royals were not one of those clubs. The organization had a very clear strategy entering the draft: They were going all-in on college pitching in an effort to rebuild a farm system that had struggled to draft and develop pitching for years – mostly through the high school ranks.

The list of failures is extremely long and features the likes of Foster Griffin, Scott Blewett, Ashe Russell, Nolan Watson, and Garrett Davila when counting only the 2014 and 2015 drafts. Those five prep arms cost the organization more than $10.5 million in signing bonuses. Those five pitchers have also accounted for zero MLB innings to date and two of them (Russell and Davila) are out of baseball. Watson is still in A-ball (and hurt). Griffin and Blewett are pitching in Triple-A but their ERAs are 5.58 and 7.23, respectively.

Fast-forward to the 2018 draft where the Royals waded waist-deep into the college pitching market and came away with 11 college pitchers (and one junior college pitcher) with their first 17 selections spanning the initial 14 rounds of the draft. And eight or nine of their 2018 picks could end up with fantasy baseball value.

FANTASY VALUE: Brady Singer, RHP, 18th overall: At one point, Singer was in the discussion to go No. 1 overall in the 2018 draft so for him to slip down to 18 was a huge win for the Royals. After not pitching any pro innings after signing, he was assigned to High-A ball to begin 2019 and posted a 1.87 ERA in 10 games. Promoted to Double-A at the beginning of June, he’s had a couple of rough games and has a 6.35 ERA in five starts. The balls have been jumping out of the yard more for Singer, who allowed just one homer in 57.1 A-ball innings but has now given up four in 22.2 Double-A innings. Even so, he’s still inducing ground balls at a very high rate and doing a solid job of throwing strikes. His strikeouts are down in Double-A after averaging almost one per inning at the lower level but he’s shown the ability to make adjustments. There is mid-rotation potential here with a chance at being a top-of-rotation guy if he can keep missing bats and inducing ground-balls at an elite rate.

FANTASY VALUE: Jackson Kowar, RHP, 33rd overall: Kowar was another pitcher that fell to the Royals after being projected to get snapped up in the 15th to the 20th pick of the draft. A college teammate of Singer, this big right-hander also opened 2019 in High-A ball. He was also promoted to Double-A on June 22 and celebrated the move with seven shutout innings. Kowar stands 6-5 and has room to add even more good weight/muscle to his frame but can already pitch in the mid-90s. His biggest need is consistency in his breaking ball; if that happens, he could develop into a mid-rotation starter.

FANTASY VALUE: Daniel Lynch, LHP, 34th overall: When the 2019 season began, I highlighted Lynch as my favorite Royals pitching prospect and projected that he would be a Top 100 prospect by the end of the year. More of an average player in college and projected to go around the third round of the draft, the Royals took and paid him about $400,000 less than slot value. He rewarded the organization by adding 3-4 mph to his fastball velocity after turning pro and posted a 1.58 ERA in 12 starts after signing in ’18. He also got assigned to High-A ball to open up the 2019 season and posted a 3.09 ERA with a K-BB of 15-52 through 55.1 innings. Unfortunately, Lynch left his June 1 start with an injury and hasn’t pitched since that time; the injury was not considered serious at that time but it slowed his timetable to The Show.

POTENTIAL FANTASY VALUE: Kris Bubic, LHP, 40th overall: Bubic had a lot of success as a starting pitcher for Stanford with average stuff and that earned him a tidy bonus as the 40th overall pick. He’s pitched very well in pro ball and opened 2019 in Low-A where he dominated the younger competition. He was promoted to High-A ball at the end of May and has been solid. He looks like a future No. 4 starter with an average fastball and plus change-up. Like Kowar above, his value could increase with an improved breaking ball. At 6-3, 220 pounds, he has the body to be an innings-eater.

POTENTIAL FANTASY VALUE: Jonathan Bowlan, RHP. 2nd round: The Royals saved a fair bit of coin by taking Bowlan in the second round after he was projected as more of a fifth to eighth round talent. He was mostly a reliever in college before becoming a starter as a junior. He has a big, massive frame and has excellent control but his command is below-average and he allows more hits than he should. He can tickle the mid-90s with his heater but both of his secondary offerings are considered below-average and need work. He struggled during his pro debut in 2018 but dominated Low-A ball hitters in 2019 with 74 strikeouts and just 10 walks in 69.2 innings. He was recently promoted to High-A ball where he has 16 strikeouts and just one walk in 12 innings over two starts. Bowlan looks like a future No. 4 starter given that he allows too many base runners via the hit but he could also end up as a seventh/eighth-inning reliever.

POTENTIAL FANTASY VALUE: Austin Cox, LHP, 5th round: Cox was a great addition as a fifth rounder. He had a lot of success in college because of his ability to consistently spin the ball. He shows four average-or-better pitches and his heater can touch 94-95 mph. The southpaw struck out 77 Low-A ball batters in 75.1 innings and recently earned a promotion to High-A ball.

POTENTIAL FANTASY VALUE: Zach Haake, RHP, 6th round: Haake was a college pitcher with very good stuff whose results never matched up. He was a good gamble in the sixth round considering he can fire his heater up into the 96-97 mph range at times. He also has very good changeup but his breaking ball lags behind his other offerings. He’s pitching in Low-A ball as a starter right now with 40 strikes in 31.1 innings but his future may very well be in the bullpen.

SLEEPER FANTASY VALUE: Rylan Kaufman, LHP, 12th round: Signed out of junior college for more than $7220,000 with the extra savings from earlier in the draft, Kaufman is more of a project than the other far more advanced pitchers above. The junior college arm was a real sleeper in the 2018 draft with a highly-projectable frame, fastball velo that was trending upward and a high-spin-rate curveball with plus-plus potential. He’s only just now getting started in short-season ball this season but could be a name to know in a year or two if he continues to trend upward and throw strikes.

BONUS FANTASY VALUE: Kyle Isbel, CF, 3rd round: The Royals did a great job identifying college pitchers but they may have also scored with Isbel, who appears set to provide great value from the third round of the draft. He had a breakout junior year at the University of Las Vegas, which isn’t exactly a hotbed for MLB prospects, but he’s done nothing but hit as a pro – although his 2019 season has been cut short by a freak injury (1.054 OPS in 13 games in High-A). He’s shown the ability to do a little bit of everything (hit for average, power, run, play defense) and has a chance to be an average everyday outfielder for the Royals. Once he gets healthy, he’s a player to monitor for fantasy value.

Source: Fangraphs.com

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